20 August 2008

Smacking The Jellyfish

Once again, A Jenius "Thank You" to Janine Mendes-Franco for including another of My posts in Global Voices Online. This one also migrated over to the LGBT side of the ledger, and was even picked up in Mexico.

In an after-hours press conference, five more Federal charges were lodged against non-governor Aníbal "Jellyfish" Acevedo, he of the aqueous cranium and watery demeanor. The total, for those of you counting, is up to 24. And more charges are expected.

As I was asked when the news hit the fan: Cui bono?

I confess that I don't know yet. Maybe the benefit is not to a person or entity, but to a concept such as "justice" or a process such as "law enforcement." (Don't give Me that look: It's been known to happen.) Some people state that it is not the providence of the federal government to carry out this investigation, but the bottom line is that federal laws were broken (allegedly, cough-cough) using federal money on federal territory. It affronts dignity, but there it is.

I do know--or have a strong reason to believe--that We are in for a very long ride. Here are some mileposts We can expect along the way:

--Charges dropped. We can expect as many as half the charges will be dropped simply because they were included as "bargaining chips," smaller infractions that help build the case against The Jellyfish and his cohorts, but aren't really needed to nail his squishy posterior to the wall. What is the central charge, the Victory Condition for the Federal investigation? Conspiracy. All they want is to prove that The Jellyfish knew about the fraud schemes.

--A separate "take-down" case. The next round of charges will most likely include an "open-and-shut" display of evidence that leaves The Jellyfish high and dry, with one of his cohorts going down hard. It's a common prosecution tactic to both intimidate and pressure the main target to avoid the lengthy judicial battle. A quick clean victory is better--and safer for the prosecution--than a long, drawn-out series of battles.

--A Jellyfish kicked out of office, and his wake--er, Party--losing big. Even with a spineless Luis  "Larval Jellyfish" Fortuño as an opponent (pursued as he is by Stupid followers...and those of Pedro Stupid Rosselló), there is very little chance for The Jellyfish to win the election and his downfall will drag his fellow candidates down. The expectation amongst the non-governor's dwindling followers is that they can engage the Larval Jellyfish in a series of debates, where Larval Jellyfish would have the same chance a turtle has of winning a flying contest.

--A trial that extends into 2010. The Jellyfish will keep floating in the hope that somehow a major mistake will be made and he can squeeze through some tiny technicality or procedural gap and emerge unpunished. This is known in legal circles as "The O.J. Prosecution Screw-Up Theory of Defense." It isn't much, but even invertebrates can count on luck.

The Jenius Has Spoken.

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