03 March 2008

Primary Prediction

March 9th is Primary Day here in Puerto Rico, a combination Adventist wedding and enema party hos(t)ed at Our expense. With herds of acephalic leeches running amok, there is one contest that demands a neutrino of attention: Statehood party gubernatorial candidate.

Setting aside the vapidness of the party's ideology, We can focus on the two candidates: Tweedledee, alias Luis "I Ain't Waldo" Fortuño and TweedleStupid, Pedro "Yes, Call Me Stupid" Rosselló. The difference between these two candidates can be expressed simply: One believes he has administrative ability and the other is a borderline sociopath. 

But rather than continue dissecting the putrid intellectual corpses these two dingbats almost present as "platforms," let's aim for a prediction. Courtesy of a colleague of Mine who'd rather remain anonymous (and I will try to talk him out of THAT), here are his predictions for the primary results:

---Rosselló beats Fortuño by an average margin of 14% given turnouts of between 33-100% of registered party voters. (Range of 5-21% margin of victory.) Conclusion: Rosselló's control of the party machinery gives him a major base of support.

---At the expected turnout level (615,000 votes cast), Rosselló is expected to beat Fortuño by about 76,000 votes. This means that about 64% of the party's registered voters cast a ballot.

---Rosselló's expected margins of victory drop as voter turnout rises, to the point where he is expected to lose the primary if over 1.07 million votes are cast. Conclusion: Crossover voting will come from an anti-Rosselló movement.

---Expected end result: Rosselló: 55% of the vote; Fortuño 45%.

Is the crossover vote expected? No. That would come primarily from the current governor's party, known as The Suffering Supporters of Ye Old Jellyfish. They would rather face Stupid Rosselló, who has so many varicose veins of corruption running through his resumé it looks like a map of the Amazon water basin. (Smells worse, too.)

So come Sunday, with bars closed and liquor sales vetted until after the polls close, We can try to ignore the blaring loudspeakers, the lane-hogging caravans and the overwhelmingly-empty "news" coverage to focus on what really matters: Spring training.

Anything else is Stupid (Rosselló.)

The Jenius Has Spoken.

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