22 September 2006

Deadline: March, 2007

In a conversation with Chris Borg, president of BorgSolutions, We discovered a shared conclusion: Puerto Rico will have a crisis by March, 2007.

Both Chris and I--and presumably quite a few of Us--note that with the imposition of a 7% sales tax starting November 15th, the Christmas retail season, usually the largest spending period of the year, will be seriously dampened. This coming on the heels of the second-best yearly buying period (Mother's Day) being steamrolled by the government's fake economic crisis. End result: A vacuum of about 9-14% in total sales for the year. Could be higher; if it is, the howls will begin in late January.

Though the sales tax will supposedly increase government revenue, it will actually break even or lead to a decrease in overall revenue, at least for 2007. The reasons are easy to list:

---Poorly-applied tax leads to massive confusion.
---Massive confusion in taxes leads to under-payments; some are accidental, many are on purpose.
---Consumption drops: expected revenue goals are not met.
---People leaving the Island reduce the tax base.
---People buying off-Island (Internet, everyone?) reduce the revenue base.
---The underground economy grows as it becomes more lucrative to use. (Cash is Emperor!)

Unlike Chris, who believes the sales tax revenue goal will be 95% covered by large retailers, I believe that when the tide drops, the whole fleet, from aircraft carrier to dinghy, drops, too. And when the drop becomes a reality, shortly after the Christmas period ends (about late January, cuz We got a Christmas period that makes Exodus look like a day-hike), the government will see its stupidity dangling like a mangled foreskin and all Purgatory will break loose again.

What will the pattern be? I suspect that a private sector strike will be the spark and the fuse will be lit when government employees join in. A sidebar issue of importance will be loss of control (authority dethroned) in school environments. (Societal tensions often manifest themselves first in classrooms and campuses.)

And when--not if, when--the government announces that "There isn't enough money to complete the fiscal year," (don't gape at Me: it will happen) the excreta will hit the rotating oscillator. And We'll be on the receiving end of a feces spray like We never could have imagined.

Pessimistic? Maybe. But is there anyone out there, any of Us, willing to bet against this?

The Jenius Has Spoken.


Unknown said...


Must be nice, to be right all the time ;-)

Anonymous said...

Holy Shit....I know it was bad...but this bad?

Fleeing to the states looks pretty good right now.